* Export ban to limit China ’ randomness NPI production, boost Indonesia ’ second * China NPI end product to fall 40 % to 340,000 T by 2021 – Woodmac YICHANG, China, Nov 6 ( Reuters ) – A ban on nickel ore exports from Indonesia will aggressively reduce top buyer China ’ s output of stainless sword natural corporeal nickel hog iron ( NPI ) and have a knock-on consequence on production of the corrosion-resistant metallic itself, analysts said on Wednesday. Indonesia, the world ’ second biggest miner of nickel ore, has brought ahead a ban on exports to the start of 2020, prompting a scramble for supply before it takes effect.

As it looks to process more resources at base, Indonesia ’ s own NPI production – chiefly from projects operated by chinese companies including Tsingshan Holding Group – could surge well beyond China ’ south. “ There are so many developments ongoing or proposed in Indonesia that the likely increase of NPI is mind-bending, ” said Andrew Mitchell, lead of nickel research at Wood Mackenzie. “ We have already seen it grow from adjacent to nothing in 2014 to an estimated 500,000 tonnes or then by 2020. ” Mitchell, public speaking at the China International Nickel and Cobalt Industry Forum in Yichang, sees China ’ randomness NPI production besides coming in at 500,000 tonnes next year, depressed 13 % from an estimated 575,000 tonnes in 2019 because of lower ore provide. “ This could constrain chinese stainless steel steel production. I think there is a actual risk around whether … we will see production cuts in China, ” Mitchell added.

China ’ s stainless sword output is set to rise by 13 % this year to around 30 million tonnes, according to Xu Aidong, foreman nickel analyst at Chinese research house Antaike, who sees output climbing by a slower 4 % in 2020. Xu besides forecasts China ’ randomness NPI output will drop to around 500,000 tonnes next year, believing it will be intemperate for fresh projects to launch for a miss of ore, and puts Indonesia ’ s 2020 end product at a higher 550,000 tonnes. Combined, the two countries could account for 49 % of ball-shaped NPI production this year and 51 % in 2020, she added.

Mitchell, interim, believes any dent in China ’ south NPI production in 2020 will be dwarfed by the impact the following year, since some Indonesian ore will continue to arrive in the weeks after the ban takes consequence, sustaining production. “ So it ’ s only by 2021 that we see a meaning descent – and at that point it falls to about 340,000 tonnes. ” Ricardo Ferreira, director of commercialize research and statistics at the International Nickel Study Group, put China ’ sulfur nickel ore stocks at around 12.3 million tonnes as of Oct. 18, down from 17 million tonnes at the end of 2018. ( Reporting by Tom Daly ; Editing by Dale Hudson )

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